Where is the Market Going?

If you ask me whether the market will have moved up or down by this time next year, well I may as well flip a coin, because I don't know.

If you ask me whether the market will have moved up or down by this time next month, well again, I may as well flip a coin, because I still don't know.

If you ask me whether the market will have moved up or down by this time next week, AGAIN, I may as well flip a coin, because I don't know.

And if you ask me whether the market will have moved up or down by this time tomorrow, I am sorry, but I JUST DON'T KNOW!

But? if you ask me whether the market will move up or down in next few minutes, well I will have a definite opinion. Why? Because if I can see the CURRENT state of buying and selling in the market NOW, then I can make a reasoned and fairly accurate estimate of what the market will do in the next few minutes and moments.

My prediction will not be based on some secret formula; it will not be based on some esoteric sounding indicator, nor on some complex mathematical equation. No, it will be based on my evaluation of the current state of supply and demand.

Predicting the long-term movements of the markets is a guessing game. All we have to go on is the past; all we can reasonably do is assume that what has happened in the past will continue to happen in the future. Basically that is what trend following is, making the assumption that the past equals the future.

In my trading world, the only law that works is that of supply and demand: if there are more buyers than sellers then the market will go up; and if there are more sellers than buyers the market will go down.

It matters not one iota the whys and wherefores of the buyers and the sellers. It does not matter that a trader has chosen to sell now because the 9 period moving average has crossed the 14 period; or because he has just lost his shirt; or because he is taking a profit; or because he is just plain bored.

No, I don't care why a trader has entered a buy or a sell order, I just care that they have, by their act, added to either the buying or the selling pressure.

Malcolm Robinson
LIFFE Pit Trader & Electronic Trader
InstinctiveTrader.com

MORE RESOURCES:

Stampede for Yen Saps Asian Currency Trading - Wall Street Journal

table border=0 width= valign=top cellpadding=2 cellspacing=7trtd width=80 align=center valign=topfont style=font-size:85%;font-family:arial,sans-serifa href=http://news.google.com/news/url?sa=Tct=us/0i-0fd=Rurl=http://www.rte.ie/business/2008/1006/euro.htmlcid=1254889944ei=XYLwSPzvEZaO9QTbupzDBwusg=AFQjCNHUND43LEUOLqvTfWqMV99m9wYrfgimg src=http://news.google.com/news?imgefp=WeTN4ck4Yv0Jimgurl=dynimg.rte.ie/00019d1010dr.jpg width=80 height=60 alt= border=1brfont size=-2RTE.ie/font/a/font/tdtd valign=top class=jfont style=font-size:85%;font-family:arial,sans-serifbrdiv style=padding-top:0.8em;img alt= height=1 width=1/divdiv class=lha href=http://news.google.com/news/url?sa=Tct=us/0-0fd=Rurl=http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122358053217020031.html%3Fmod%3Dgooglenews_wsjcid=1254889944ei=XYLwSPzvEZaO9QTbupzDBwusg=AFQjCNEIL0IEWStoTN-Wn8gL9bZu--FYmAStampede for Yen Saps Asian bCurrency Trading/b/abrfont size=-1font color=#6f6f6fWall Street Journalnbsp;-/font nobrOct 9, 2008/nobr/fontbrfont size=-1Meanwhile, hedging against foreign-exchange risk has become more difficult as options related to bcurrency trading/b have become more expensive, Mr. Liu said. b.../b/fontbrfont size=-1a href=http://news.google.com/news/url?sa=Tct=us/0-1fd=Rurl=http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news%3Fpid%3D20601087%26sid%3DaVkVu3p842AQ%26refer%3Dhomecid=1254889944ei=XYLwSPzvEZaO9QTbupzDBwusg=AFQjCNGpDVh21nTo7DCq7igDCIEZqxSjyQYen Rises on Speculation Stocks Rout Will Reverse Carry Trades/a font size=-1 color=#6f6f6fnobrBloomberg/nobr/font/fontbrfont size=-1a href=http://news.google.com/news/url?sa=Tct=us/0-2fd=Rurl=http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2008-10/07/content_10157483.htmcid=1254889944ei=XYLwSPzvEZaO9QTbupzDBwusg=AFQjCNE-QVZsUwrAl6K7JM1jjmssIgHiQADollar higher against euro, sharply lower against yen/a font size=-1 color=#6f6f6fnobrXinhua/nobr/font/fontbrfont size=-1a href=http://news.google.com/news/url?sa=Tct=us/0-3fd=Rurl=http://www.tradetnt.com/euro-banks-feeling-dollar-shortage/1204.htmlcid=1254889944ei=XYLwSPzvEZaO9QTbupzDBwusg=AFQjCNH8BrgUDPh4cYkycEGwDMjI8PGtpwEuro Banks Feeling Dollar Shortage/a font size=-1 color=#6f6f6fnobrTradeTNT.com/nobr/font/fontbrfont class=p size=-1a class=p href=http://news.google.com/news?sourceid=navclientie=ISO-8859-1rls=GGLG,GGLG:2005-22,GGLG:enncl=1254889944hl=ennobrall 553 news articles/nobr/a/font/div/font/td/tr/table

Iceland#39;s Krona Currency Trading Halts as Kaupthing Taken Over - Bloomberg

table border=0 width= valign=top cellpadding=2 cellspacing=7trtd width=80 align=center valign=topfont style=font-size:85%;font-family:arial,sans-serifa href=http://news.google.com/news/url?sa=Tct=us/1i-0fd=Rurl=http://www.canada.com/topics/news/world/story.html%3Fid%3D89564178-d998-4e07-a260-84d221b4d08bcid=1255748512ei=XYLwSPzvEZaO9QTbupzDBwusg=AFQjCNEKXvSfduB2VbxT3JfTO6bPykl75wimg src=http://news.google.com/news?imgefp=CktzXrCcLAQJimgurl=a123.g.akamai.net/f/123/12465/1d/media.canada.com/6d03bf1c-03fd-4a15-8106-b83ca306188c/iceland-bank1009.jpg%3Fsize%3Dl width=80 height=80 alt= border=1brfont size=-2Canada.com/font/a/font/tdtd valign=top class=jfont style=font-size:85%;font-family:arial,sans-serifbrdiv style=padding-top:0.8em;img alt= height=1 width=1/divdiv class=lha href=http://news.google.com/news/url?sa=Tct=us/1-0fd=Rurl=http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news%3Fpid%3D20601085%26sid%3Daiz5QIq94nrw%26refer%3Deuropecid=1255748512ei=XYLwSPzvEZaO9QTbupzDBwusg=AFQjCNFmyXUXVHXkl3---bJQtgL-tkXM7AIceland#39;s Krona bCurrency Trading/b Halts as Kaupthing Taken Over/abrfont size=-1font color=#6f6f6fBloombergnbsp;-/font nobrOct 9, 2008/nobr/fontbrfont size=-1By Bo Nielsen Oct. 9 (Bloomberg) -- Trading in the Icelandic krona came to a halt after the government seized control of Kaupthing Bank hf, the nation#39;s b.../b/fontbrfont size=-1a href=http://news.google.com/news/url?sa=Tct=us/1-1fd=Rurl=http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2008/10/08/shortest-currency-peg-ever/cid=1255748512ei=XYLwSPzvEZaO9QTbupzDBwusg=AFQjCNFMhdPs_noliVhcyRQoVy1vHpRelAShortest. Currency Peg. Ever./a font size=-1 color=#6f6f6fnobrWall Street Journal Blogs/nobr/font/fontbrfont class=p size=-1a class=p href=http://news.google.com/news?sourceid=navclientie=ISO-8859-1rls=GGLG,GGLG:2005-22,GGLG:enncl=1255748512hl=ennobrall 1,470 news articles/nobr/a/font/div/font/td/tr/table

MCX Stock Exchange begins currency trading - Sify

RBI, Sebi to relax currency trading norms - Hindu

table border=0 width= valign=top cellpadding=2 cellspacing=7trtd width=80 align=center valign=topfont style=font-size:85%;font-family:arial,sans-serifa href=http://news.google.com/news/url?sa=Tct=us/3i-0fd=Rurl=http://sify.com/finance/fullstory.php%3Fid%3D14758206cid=1252832063ei=XYLwSPzvEZaO9QTbupzDBwusg=AFQjCNHR66iUZZKsrCQWrWvEO7BAxV1uEQimg src=http://news.google.com/news?imgefp=SBGic4oxq_wJimgurl=im.sify.com/sifycmsimg/jul2008/Finance/14727680_sebi_220.jpg width=80 height=57 alt= border=1brfont size=-2Sify/font/a/font/tdtd valign=top class=jfont style=font-size:85%;font-family:arial,sans-serifbrdiv style=padding-top:0.8em;img alt= height=1 width=1/divdiv class=lha href=http://news.google.com/news/url?sa=Tct=us/3-0fd=Rurl=http://www.hindu.com/thehindu/holnus/006200810011731.htmcid=1252832063ei=XYLwSPzvEZaO9QTbupzDBwusg=AFQjCNF59p_8BrJLlqac_nFTi7vrsoEViwRBI, Sebi to relax bcurrency trading/b norms/abrfont size=-1font color=#6f6f6fHindu,nbsp;Indianbsp;-/font nobrOct 1, 2008/nobr/fontbrfont size=-1Mumbai (PTI): The Reserve Bank of India and Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) are in discussions to relax the bcurrency trading/b norms, b.../b/fontbrfont size=-1a href=http://news.google.com/news/url?sa=Tct=us/3-1fd=Rurl=http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news%3Fpid%3D20601091%26sid%3DaJQqfYFBEE9Q%26refer%3Dindiacid=1252832063ei=XYLwSPzvEZaO9QTbupzDBwusg=AFQjCNHJQLEx2l0gJvd_4HbZN88jtW2eXwIndia Working on Relaxing bCurrency Trading/b Rules, Bhave Says/a font size=-1 color=#6f6f6fnobrBloomberg/nobr/font/fontbrfont size=-1a href=http://news.google.com/news/url?sa=Tct=us/3-2fd=Rurl=http://www.indiainfoline.com/news/innernews.asp%3FstoryId%3D80612%26lmn%3D1cid=1252832063ei=XYLwSPzvEZaO9QTbupzDBwusg=AFQjCNHDWo_rCLEEWltWA02Fb_-9cFCj1wRBI, SEBI mull easing bcurrency-trading/b norms/a font size=-1 color=#6f6f6fnobrIndia Infoline.com/nobr/font/fontbrfont size=-1a href=http://news.google.com/news/url?sa=Tct=us/3-3fd=Rurl=http://www.topnews.in/bse-launches-currency-futures-trading-272932cid=1252832063ei=XYLwSPzvEZaO9QTbupzDBwusg=AFQjCNG4eTk5GAaHoqZalL03cCO48g1d5ABSE Launches Currency Futures Trading/a font size=-1 color=#6f6f6fnobrTopNews/nobr/font/fontbrfont size=-1 class=pa href=http://news.google.com/news/url?sa=Tct=us/3-4fd=Rurl=http://www.thaindian.com/newsportal/business/norms-for-currency-futures-likely-to-be-relaxed_100102431.htmlcid=1252832063ei=XYLwSPzvEZaO9QTbupzDBwusg=AFQjCNHt05C8L5Ch8CEFqi8xxKena63NKgnobrThaindian.com/nobr/anbsp;- a href=http://news.google.com/news/url?sa=Tct=us/3-5fd=Rurl=http://www.thaindian.com/newsportal/india-news/bombay-stock-exchange-launches-currency-derivatives_100102299.htmlcid=1252832063ei=XYLwSPzvEZaO9QTbupzDBwusg=AFQjCNEuNEE2Y1N2n9soUl82U45b6heCewnobrThaindian.com/nobr/a/fontbr/font class=p size=-1a class=p href=http://news.google.com/news?sourceid=navclientie=ISO-8859-1rls=GGLG,GGLG:2005-22,GGLG:enncl=1252832063hl=ennobrall 151 news articles/nobr/a/font/div/font/td/tr/table

MICEX plans to open trading as normal on Mon. - RIA Novosti

table border=0 width= valign=top cellpadding=2 cellspacing=7trtd valign=top class=jfont style=font-size:85%;font-family:arial,sans-serifbrdiv style=padding-top:0.8em;img alt= height=1 width=1/divdiv class=lha href=http://news.google.com/news/url?sa=Tct=us/4-0fd=Rurl=http://en.rian.ru/business/20081010/117667286.htmlcid=1255026447ei=XYLwSPzvEZaO9QTbupzDBwusg=AFQjCNEKzE-_JjGwHfNJuAmo9OmXo0Ox-QMICEX plans to open trading as normal on Mon./abrfont size=-1font color=#6f6f6fRIA Novosti,nbsp;Russianbsp;-/font nobr19 hours ago/nobr/fontbrfont size=-1MOSCOW, October 10 (RIA Novosti) - The Moscow Interbank Currency Exchange plans to begin trading as normal on Monday morning unless the Federal Service for b.../b/font/div/font/td/tr/table

China Banks Cut Currency Trading With Foreign Lenders (Update1) - Bloomberg

table border=0 width= valign=top cellpadding=2 cellspacing=7trtd valign=top class=jfont style=font-size:85%;font-family:arial,sans-serifbrdiv style=padding-top:0.8em;img alt= height=1 width=1/divdiv class=lha href=http://news.google.com/news/url?sa=Tct=us/5-0fd=Rurl=http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news%3Fpid%3D20601080%26sid%3DalJJx6wybqMc%26refer%3Dasiacid=1250859859ei=XYLwSPzvEZaO9QTbupzDBwusg=AFQjCNF8zBMi7feFkjCZoj8TyLwhBlsWpAChina Banks Cut bCurrency Trading/b With Foreign Lenders (Update1)/abrfont size=-1font color=#6f6f6fBloombergnbsp;-/font nobrSep 26, 2008/nobr/fontbrfont size=-1By Judy Chen and Belinda Cao Sept. 26 (Bloomberg) -- China#39;s banks are limiting foreign- exchange transactions with US and European financial companies on b.../b/font/div/font/td/tr/table

Japanese Yen Likely to Gain as Currency Trading Crowds Buy USDJPY - Daily FX

table border=0 width= valign=top cellpadding=2 cellspacing=7trtd valign=top class=jfont style=font-size:85%;font-family:arial,sans-serifbrdiv style=padding-top:0.8em;img alt= height=1 width=1/divdiv class=lha href=http://news.google.com/news/url?sa=Tct=us/6-0fd=Rurl=http://www.dailyfx.com/story/currency/jpy_ssi/USDJPY_Japanese_Yen_Likely_to_Gain_1222955721225.htmlcid=0ei=XYLwSPzvEZaO9QTbupzDBwusg=AFQjCNHK4CDFFn_BugxKeF_KbcOip6RIKwJapanese Yen Likely to Gain as bCurrency Trading/b Crowds Buy USDJPY/abrfont size=-1font color=#6f6f6fDaily FX,nbsp;NYnbsp;-/font nobrOct 2, 2008/nobr/fontbrfont size=-1USDJPY – Our forex positioning indicator continues to forecast US dollar losses against the Japanese Yen, as we see that bcurrency trading/b crowds continue to b.../b/font/div/font/td/tr/table

Market turnaround - CNN

table border=0 width= valign=top cellpadding=2 cellspacing=7trtd width=80 align=center valign=topfont style=font-size:85%;font-family:arial,sans-serifa href=http://news.google.com/news/url?sa=Tct=us/7i-0fd=Rurl=http://www.wkrg.com/financial/article/stocks_5_year_lows/19848/cid=1256435323ei=XYLwSPzvEZaO9QTbupzDBwusg=AFQjCNEvMpJEZcW_CEvQMVbxH4-QU7U2pQimg src=http://news.google.com/news?imgefp=D1FLNrcw3eUJimgurl=media.wkrg.com/media/news3/cache/t1home.nyse1_.ap_-265x239.jpg width=80 height=72 alt= border=1brfont size=-2WKRG-TV/font/a/font/tdtd valign=top class=jfont style=font-size:85%;font-family:arial,sans-serifbrdiv style=padding-top:0.8em;img alt= height=1 width=1/divdiv class=lha href=http://news.google.com/news/url?sa=Tct=us/7-0fd=Rurl=http://money.cnn.com/2008/10/10/markets/markets_newyork/%3Fpostversion%3D2008101015cid=1256435323ei=XYLwSPzvEZaO9QTbupzDBwusg=AFQjCNEDU9sDMP5utVo3FSbdvOzQmRVhhAMarket turnaround/abrfont size=-1font color=#6f6f6fCNNnbsp;-/font nobr14 hours ago/nobr/fontbrfont size=-1COMEX gold for December delivery rose $14.50 to $901 an ounce. In bcurrency trading/b, the dollar gained against the euro and the yen./fontbrfont size=-1a href=http://news.google.com/news/url?sa=Tct=us/7-1fd=Rurl=http://money.cnn.com/2008/10/09/markets/markets_newyork/%3Fpostversion%3D2008100918cid=1256435323ei=XYLwSPzvEZaO9QTbupzDBwusg=AFQjCNG4tm2oIp93f5ofMYUPeXKsSSewzQDow tumbles 7%/a font size=-1 color=#6f6f6fnobrCNNMoney.com/nobr/font/fontbrfont size=-1a href=http://news.google.com/news/url?sa=Tct=us/7-2fd=Rurl=http://www.wkrg.com/financial/article/stocks_5_year_lows/19848/cid=1256435323ei=XYLwSPzvEZaO9QTbupzDBwusg=AFQjCNEvMpJEZcW_CEvQMVbxH4-QU7U2pQStocks: 5-year lows/a font size=-1 color=#6f6f6fnobrWKRG-TV/nobr/font/fontbrfont size=-1a href=http://news.google.com/news/url?sa=Tct=us/7-3fd=Rurl=http://www.wibw.com/nationalnews/headlines/30591699.htmlcid=1256435323ei=XYLwSPzvEZaO9QTbupzDBwusg=AFQjCNGifPcbRfdpOsKDGtFzJju3W9mGCQA 5-year low/a font size=-1 color=#6f6f6fnobrWIBW/nobr/font/fontbrfont size=-1 class=pa href=http://news.google.com/news/url?sa=Tct=us/7-4fd=Rurl=http://money.cnn.com/2008/10/09/markets/markets_newyork/%3Fpostversion%3D2008100910cid=1256435323ei=XYLwSPzvEZaO9QTbupzDBwusg=AFQjCNHcedL1ab6dRMRhmDpXiy-SLFuAtQnobrCNN/nobr/anbsp;- a href=http://news.google.com/news/url?sa=Tct=us/7-5fd=Rurl=http://money.cnn.com/2008/10/06/markets/markets_newyork/%3Fpostversion%3D2008100610cid=1256435323ei=XYLwSPzvEZaO9QTbupzDBwusg=AFQjCNHafanhC_ttkVPqfyHzDxpx7OjAVQnobrCNN/nobr/a/fontbr/font class=p size=-1a class=p href=http://news.google.com/news?sourceid=navclientie=ISO-8859-1rls=GGLG,GGLG:2005-22,GGLG:enncl=1256435323hl=ennobrall 31 news articles/nobr/a/font/div/font/td/tr/table

Slow take-off for Zimbabwe’s foreign currency trading scheme - The Zimbabwean

table border=0 width= valign=top cellpadding=2 cellspacing=7trtd valign=top class=jfont style=font-size:85%;font-family:arial,sans-serifbrdiv style=padding-top:0.8em;img alt= height=1 width=1/divdiv class=lha href=http://news.google.com/news/url?sa=Tct=us/8-0fd=Rurl=http://www.thezimbabwean.co.uk/index.php%3Foption%3Dcom_content%26view%3Darticle%26id%3D15567:slow-take-off-for-zimbabwes-foreign-currency-trading-scheme-%26catid%3D31:top%2520zimbabwe%2520stories%26Itemid%3D66cid=0ei=XYLwSPzvEZaO9QTbupzDBwusg=AFQjCNFkZiFDGrglXsbheo-tQF663jk_XQSlow take-off for Zimbabwe’s foreign bcurrency trading/b scheme/abrfont size=-1font color=#6f6f6fThe Zimbabwean,nbsp;Africanbsp;-/font nobrOct 2, 2008/nobr/fontbrfont size=-1After a slow take-off for the new foreign bcurrency-trading/b scheme, a handful of shops started selling in US dollars or South African rands. b.../b/font/div/font/td/tr/table

Currency Trading Signals Catch a Powerful Japanese Yen Rally ... - Daily FX

table border=0 width= valign=top cellpadding=2 cellspacing=7trtd valign=top class=jfont style=font-size:85%;font-family:arial,sans-serifbrdiv style=padding-top:0.8em;img alt= height=1 width=1/divdiv class=lha href=http://news.google.com/news/url?sa=Tct=us/9-0fd=Rurl=http://www.dailyfx.com/story/market_alerts/technical_alert/Currency_Trading_Signals_Catch_a_1222974028240.htmlcid=0ei=XYLwSPzvEZaO9QTbupzDBwusg=AFQjCNGTwbMnPwqATM5jx9lwb--AdiMzoQbCurrency Trading/b Signals Catch a Powerful Japanese Yen Rally b.../b/abrfont size=-1font color=#6f6f6fDaily FX,nbsp;NYnbsp;-/font nobrOct 2, 2008/nobr/fontbrfont size=-1Our Forex Trading signals accurately forecasted that the Japanese Yen would gain aggressively against the Euro, US Dollar, Australian Dollar, b.../b/font/div/font/td/tr/table

Currency-Trading - Google News

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